The coronavirus pandemic continues to spread with no signs of abating. Over 100,000 cases have been confirmed in almost 100 countries across the globe as of this writing. Some 4,000 deaths have been reported, 80% of which occurred in mainland China.
Preventive measures taken by the public sector and by global industry are already having widespread effects. In the past several days, Italy has officially imposed a whole-country lockdown, and in the U.S., epicenter states such as California and New York have declared emergency status while instituting lockdowns on high-risk districts such as New Rochelle.
Last week, the OECD cut global economic growth projections by half, and the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to its lowest level since 2009. Numerous companies including Apple and Nvidia have reported underwhelming earnings in recent quarters and have proceeded to cut their earnings guidance for the foreseeable future.
These economic impacts are in part related to disruption in demand for goods due to quarantines and travel restrictions. However, more nefariously, economic pundits have expressed concern for supply-side disruptions: including staff productivity losses, supply-chain dysfunction, and facility closures.